#0032 - Brazil's Ministry of Economy projects a trade surplus of US$79.4 billion in 2022

Notas do episódio

Despite the increase in imports in recent months, the Ministry of Economy projects that the trade balance will continue to grow and end 2022 with a surplus of nearly 80 billion dollars. The estimate is 30 percent higher than last year's record surplus of $61 billion. The value is more optimistic than market forecasts. According to the Focus bulletin – a weekly survey of financial institutions released by the Central Bank – economic analysts project a trade surplus of 55 billion dollars for this year. The Foreign Trade secretary at the Ministry of Economy, Lucas Ferraz, said that the estimates are preliminary and that they do not consider a possible new wave of covid- 19, which could temporarily paralyze global trade. He claims that uncertainties remain high in the foreign market and that it is extremely difficult to make projections for 2022. In the secretary's assessment, even with so many uncertainties, there is room for optimism in relation to the trade balance. According to Ferraz, commodity prices should drop slightly in 2022, but the record grain harvest, estimated at 290 million tonnes, and the recovery of the job and service market will continue to provide stability to Brazilian exports. While sales abroad will remain relatively stable, imports are likely to decline, boosting the trade surplus. According to the Ministry of Economy, exports will grow one percent in 2022 and end the year at 284 billion dollars. For imports, the projection is at 205 billion dollars, a drop of 6.6 percent compared to last year.